Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 93086.170315 98168.687940 103249.173010 108705.257603 114395.399350 120151.165915 126409.893861
2025-10-26 84007.424004 91717.556748 99639.033912 108375.569480 117730.171003 127435.570759 138255.546560
2025-11-02 77966.391761 87479.914515 97466.814580 108711.113995 120997.020124 133991.655025 148753.216886
2025-11-09 73074.508307 83903.268792 95478.141299 108736.427496 123467.056455 139295.396902 157552.690614
2025-11-16 69844.245745 81812.661376 94806.828354 109911.862724 126934.785197 145472.059365 167130.158841
2025-11-23 66352.587732 79164.267089 93274.261835 109898.105361 128875.520983 149790.952607 174509.944384
2025-11-30 64238.250686 77915.588045 93172.744405 111363.989562 132368.535726 155764.054155 183693.631835
2025-12-07 62087.199686 76484.065383 92737.644667 112334.099834 135201.771184 160922.577345 191913.695198
2025-12-14 59599.498508 74527.843322 91577.221459 112353.825135 136844.454280 164647.456958 198442.049767
2025-12-21 57496.771063 72923.768410 90735.476901 112659.594351 138747.491711 168620.451329 205226.893475
2025-12-28 56286.381115 72321.449577 91020.428324 114247.568970 142123.086422 174292.811652 214002.724062
2026-01-04 54954.348634 71505.524753 90993.313049 115414.200448 144963.944744 179321.278638 222028.256286
2026-01-11 53412.533925 70389.808451 90574.419803 116092.873485 147225.184924 183692.757906 229337.833649
2026-01-18 51720.275830 69026.785319 89801.775557 116296.455689 148881.602650 187330.071546 235781.151500
2026-01-25 50269.901086 67911.260930 89284.505619 116769.942391 150834.165437 191306.573096 242635.428147
2026-02-01 48703.410615 66592.226976 88463.924440 116821.916019 152233.489697 194592.201071 248649.740060
2026-02-08 47798.960082 66083.052405 88625.874322 118073.837957 155099.848007 199662.533734 256855.165135
2026-02-15 46360.080251 64835.252885 87812.139899 118060.397717 156362.543079 202752.744164 262636.604539
2026-02-22 45709.184958 64587.815875 88249.475585 119615.060806 159582.562840 208261.232141 271421.908384
2026-03-01 44861.361211 64050.687973 88289.864092 120643.696973 162129.823148 212939.946678 279202.171477
2026-03-08 43618.735944 62951.295299 87569.471907 120664.621526 163376.463675 215987.712875 284957.406039
2026-03-15 42563.448603 62070.059036 87103.756375 120988.803423 164991.259208 219488.694725 291286.419594
2026-03-22 42122.828537 62000.926804 87688.967189 122672.242394 168350.697249 225197.650859 300419.692391